Bayesian analysis of zero inflated spatiotemporal HIV/TB child mortality data through the INLA and SPDE approaches: Applied to data observed between 1992 and 2010 in rural North East South Africa     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2013

Longitudinal mortality data with few deaths usually have problems of zero-inflation. This paper presents and applies two Bayesian models which cater for zero-inflation, spatial and temporal random effects. To reduce the computational burden experienced when a large number of geo-locations are treated as a Gaussian field (GF) we transformed the field to a Gaussian Markov Random Fields (GMRF) by triangulation. We then modelled the spatial random effects using the Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDEs). Inference was done using a computationally efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) called Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) suited for GMRF. The models were applied to data from 71,057 children aged 0 to under 10 years from rural north-east South Africa living in 15,703 households over the years 1992–2010. We found protective effects on HIV/TB mortality due to greater birth weight, older age and more antenatal clinic visits during pregnancy (adjusted RR (95% CI)): 0.73(0.53;0.99), 0.18(0.14;0.22) and 0.96(0.94;0.97) respectively. Therefore childhood HIV/TB mortality could be reduced if mothers are better catered for during pregnancy as this can reduce mother-to-child transmissions and contribute to improved birth weights. The INLA and SPDE approaches are computationally good alternatives in modelling large multilevel spatiotemporal GMRF data structures.  相似文献   

Achieving the Impossible: The 1∶500 000 ‘Irrigation Map’ of South Africa, 1935–1937     

《The Cartographic journal》2013,50(3):237-248

Abstract

Since 1906, South Africa boasted an excellent geodetic framework, and in 1920 an official Trigonometrical Survey Office (TSO) was established. In spite of these achievements, the country, by the 1930s, still lacked reliable topographical maps. One reason for this was that the secondary and tertiary triangulations of the country were still incomplete; another was that the decision-making process as regards surveys and mapping rested with a variety of statutory bodies instead of just one. In 1934, A. D. Lewis, Director of the Department of Irrigation, committed his department to execute a general topographical survey of the country and produce a topographical map on a scale of 1∶500?000. Lewis’ decision met with much resistance from within the country and abroad, but the project was completed in a record period of 4 years. Published just before the Second World War, the map was of inestimable value to the South African Defense Force. It not only became the standard topographical map of large parts of South Africa for many years, but its contents also figured in the first map series of the TSO.  相似文献   

Analysis of the rainfall variability and change in the Republic of Benin (West Africa)     

Yédjinnavènan Ahokpossi 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(15-16):2097-2123

ABSTRACT

The temporal variation and trends of annual rainfall distribution in Benin were examined using data from 1940 to 2015 at six meteorological stations and three raingauges stationed throughout the country. The nonparametric modified Mann-Kendal (MK) and Levene tests were applied to detect trends and heteroscedasticity, respectively. For six of the time series, no significant trends were detected. A Bayesian multiple change points detection approach was applied to the rainfall time series, and most (six of nine) exhibited abrupt change points, corresponding to the alternation between wet (before 1968 and after 1990) and dry (1969–1990) periods. No significant trends or breakpoints and changes in the variance were observed for the spatial average rainfall time series. Seven modified MK trend tests were applied; the trends are affected by the selected MK method and rainfall statistics. Oceanic and/or atmospheric influences on the rainfall in Benin were examined by investigating the correlation between the precipitation time series and several indices. Negative seasonal correlations were determined for the North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Niño3, while positive seasonal correlations were observed for the Southern Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation and Dipole Mode Index.  相似文献   

利用多个震源机制解求祁连山西段平均应力场方向   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王熠熙  张辉 《地震工程学报》2013,35(2):289-295

祁连山西段由于受到多个构造块体的共同约束,表现出复杂的地球物理特性和地质特性。本文利用14个中强地震震源机制解和2001-2012年66个中小地震震源机制解分析了区域应力场特征。结果显示,地震的震源性质以走滑和逆冲为主,印证了祁连山西段基本构造变形特征;三个区域应力张量的定量结果显示,最大主压应力σ1方向在NE向,水平挤压作用明显,且具有一定的分区特征,表明局部应力场受到局部构造的影响。  相似文献   

下扬子地区与西太平洋俯冲带地震相关性研究及动力学背景探讨     

郭斌  王斌  张月辉 《华南地震》2013,(4):97-105

对下扬子地区与琉球岛弧、日本岛弧、喜马拉雅碰撞带的地震活动性特征和不同区块之间地震活动的相关性进行分析．并结合地质构造、岩石圈结构、运动学特征等探讨了下扬子地区中强震发生的动力学背景。研究结果表明：下扬子地块与琉球岛弧带应变释放过程趋势一致;下扬子地区中强震与琉球岛弧带强震相关性较好：受琉球岛弧带发生强震影响,在6-8年时间范围内下扬子地区发生中强震概率较高：从更长远时间来看。下扬子地区中强震和构造应变主要受西太平洋板缘俯冲构造运动影响。  相似文献   

金原篦羽叶Ctenis kaneharai Yokoyama最完整叶部化石的发现     

郑少林  李海君  蒋子堃  张武  刘忠诚 《地质与资源》2012,21(1):93-97

概要报道产于辽西北票市常河营乡长垅地沟村东山中侏罗统海房沟组中一种大型苏铁类叶部化石——金原篦羽叶Ctenis kaneharai Yokoyama.这种化石最早被报道于辽宁东部凤城县赛马集碾子沟中侏罗统大堡组,后来在日本和英国也被发现.但是,以往发表的该种所有材料都是些植物叶部断片标本,对它的全貌并不了解.在本文中报道的该种标本,不仅数量多而且保存得特别完整.可以说,这是迄今在我国辽西中侏罗世燕辽植物群中大型苏铁类保存最完整叶部化石的又一次重要发现.它为正确了解我国燕辽植物群的性质,苏铁类的整体形态特征和古气候状况分析,提供了更为可靠的化石依据.  相似文献   

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987112000084     

Mohamed K.Salah 《地学前缘(英文版)》2012,3(5):681-696

Seismic anisotropy and its main features along the convergent boundary between Africa and Iberia are detected through the analysis of teleseismic shear-wave splitting.Waveform data generated by 95 teleseismic events recorded at 17 broadband stations deployed in the western Mediterranean region are used in the present study.Although the station coverage is not uniform in the Iberian Peninsula and northwest Africa,significant variations in the fast polarization directions and delay times are observed at stations located at different tectonic domains.Fast polarization directions are oriented predominantly NW-SE at most stations which are close to the plate boundary and in central Iberia;being consistent with the absolute plate motion in the region.In the northern part of the Iberian Peninsula,fast velocity directions are oriented nearly E—W;coincident with previous results.Few stations located slightly north of the plate boundary and to the southeast of Iberia show E—W to NE-SW fast velocity directions,which may be related to the Alpine Orogeny and the extension direction in Iberia.Delay times vary significantly between 0.2 and 1.9 s for individual measurements,reflecting a highly anisotropic structure beneath the recording stations.The relative motion between Africa and Iberia represents the main reason for the observed NW-SE orientations of the fast velocity directions.However,different causes of anisotropy have also to be considered to explain the wide range of the splitting pattern observed in the western Mediterranean region.Many geophysical observations such as the low Pn velocity,lower lithospheric Q values,higher heat flow and the presence of high conductive features support the mantle How in the western Mediterranean,which may contribute and even modify the splitting pattern beneath the studied region.  相似文献   

山西南部燕山期类隔挡式褶皱构造特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴奇  李三忠  刘鑫  王鹏程  曹现志  索艳慧 《大地构造与成矿学》2012,36(4)

晋南地区自西向东发育一系列NNE向背斜与向斜。背斜地区主要出露太古代结晶基底或早古生代地层,向斜核部出露的最新地层则是三叠系。在宁武-静乐盆地、太原西南水浴贯等地可见零星或成片分布的侏罗系残存,部分地区可见残留的白垩系,与侏罗系呈不整合接触。根据卷入地层时代分析,这些褶皱应为燕山期变形产物。背斜区域地层相对较陡,核部或翼部发育大量NNE向逆冲断裂,太古代结晶基底同样卷入变形;而向斜核部地层非常平缓,产状近于水平。山西南部整体构造表现为一种类隔挡式褶皱构造特征。在吕梁山区、霍山背斜带及太行山沿晋获断裂一带均可见燕山期岩浆岩体分布。根据这些岩体的同位素年龄及前人节理统计结果,可知该区在晚侏罗世至早白垩世于NW-SE向的挤压应力场下发生了剧烈的构造运动。同时期,华北地区及整个中国东部都表现出相似的构造特征,而古太平洋板块正NW向往亚洲板块下俯冲,因此,晋南地区的类隔挡式褶皱的形成可能与太平洋板块俯冲有关。  相似文献   

内蒙古那仁乌拉埃达克质花岗岩的发现、成因、锆石U-Pb年龄及其构造意义   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

郝百武 《矿物岩石》2012,32(1):28-39

在中亚造山带东段华北克拉通北缘,识别出一套晚古生代那仁乌拉黑云母花岗岩。其LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄为267.2Ma±1.4 Ma(MSWD=1.3,n=21)和捕获锆石年龄为296.3Ma～296.1Ma、278.8Ma～277.4 Ma;岩石为低钾(拉斑)到高钾钙碱性,弱准铝质到过铝质I型;ΣREE较低,轻重稀土分馏较强(LaN/YbN:15.59～32.36)。在稀土元素配分模式图上,都表现为轻稀土富集,重稀土亏损的右倾散开式。弱到正的铕负异常(δEu:0.79～1.08);在微量元素蛛网图上,相对富集LREE(La,Ce),LILE(K,Rb)和HFSE(Zr,Hf),元素Nb,Ta,P,Ti,Y,Yb,Lu亏损程度较大,元素U,Th,Sr由相对亏损到富集。岩石整体具有埃达克质岩的亲合性,形成于弧向同碰撞过渡的构造环境;锆石εHf(t)值(0.95～4.05)显示具有弱亏损的幔源组分特性,与主量元素、微量元素及REE一致,变化范围都较大,共同暗示其源岩的壳幔混源性。较年轻的锆石Hf模式年龄(1 030.9Ma～1 226.8Ma)与兴蒙造山带范围一致;那仁乌拉花岗岩与西部乌拉特中旗克布岩体,东部吉林大玉山岩体共同组成一条华北克拉通北缘埃达克质岩浆带,其都为与古亚洲洋俯冲碰撞引起的具有弧岩浆性质的年轻的基性玄武质下地壳部分熔融有关的C型埃达克岩。这条埃达克质岩浆带与稍晚期的华北克拉通北缘碱性岩浆带相对应,都具有西部形成早于东部的特征,可能暗示古亚洲洋自西向东逐渐闭合的规律。  相似文献   

由深源捕虏体限定的华北克拉通下地壳特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

路凤香  侯青叶 《地学前缘》2012,19(3):177-187

文中收集了新生代、中生代和古生代由喷出/浅成岩携带的下地壳麻粒岩捕虏体及其锆石年龄的资料。结果显示,它们代表了不同时代、不同地区下地壳最下部的组成及年龄。新生代汉诺坝、女山、莒南和青岛等地的玄武岩和其中捕虏体的资料,几乎可以涵盖华北相当一大部分下地壳底部的状态。金伯利岩虽然只能提供500Ma以前的信息,但它们能够检验并确认古老地质事件发生时间的准确性。内蒙古中生代闪长岩中出露的麻粒岩属于同源捕虏体,只能代表该岩浆活动波及地区下地壳的状态。华北克拉通发育了多次以地幔物质添加为主的地质事件(地壳增生),主要有:2.8～3.0Ga,2.5Ga,1.8Ga,140～90Ma及47～45Ma,其中以2.5Ga和140～90Ma最为重要。2.5Ga的地幔岩浆底侵事件在不少地区出现,推测与地幔柱活动有关。中生代(140～90Ma)的底侵作用在克拉通分布相当广泛,包括华北北部,华北东部及东南部都有明显的记录。女山和莒南地区出现了2.3Ga的年龄,是中生代的底侵岩浆与先存的古老基底发生混合与反应的产物。1.9～2.0Ga以及1.8Ga可能与地壳的造山运动和与其伴随的短暂的热扰动造成的锆石再结晶有关。在研究下地壳捕虏体时一个重要的问题是,要注意构造背景。在一级构造单元的交界处,由于该处块体之间的相互作用复杂,需要注意判别捕虏体的块体归属,以便对华北克拉通不同部位的复杂演化历史获得更全面的认识。  相似文献